LagardèreĪs I analyze the current state of affairs surrounding the completion of the Lagardère deals, it appears that VIVHY is now faced with the final obstacle. And with the proceeds from the sale of their African logistics business, Bollore should now have the capital they need to bid for VIVHY stake and also reinvest into the logistic arm. It would also make sense for Bollore to signal to the market that a mandatory bid will not happen, which could prompt investors speculating on a bid to sell off their stake and potentially lower the equity value. However, I don't think Bollore will be forced into a bid because they have the option to sell a portion of their stake to remain below the threshold. VIVHY recently announced the cancellation of 42 million treasury shares in 2H23, which could allow Bollore to exceed the 30% threshold and trigger a mandatory bid. I am closely watching the situation with Bollore Group and their potential bid. Investors with a higher risk appetite may consider accumulating a position now in anticipation of a potential positive stock price movement following the EC's decision. Once this is done, VIVHY's attractive equity story would be a defensive business with cashflows from Canal+ and potential bids from Bolloré group. Investors seem to be more interested in corporate actions than earnings, and the completion of the Lagardère transaction is a major hurdle that management hopes to overcome by the end of May. While VIVHY's FY23 guidance was limited, it did include updates on organic growth and profitability for Havas and Canal+. In addition, the cancellation of 42 million treasury shares (4Q22 earnings call) in 2H23 has captured the attention of shareholders, potentially paving the way for Bollore Group to make a bid with over 30% stake. Vivendi's ( OTCPK:VIVHY) FY22 earnings have been impressive, with its talks with the European Commission about the Lagardère antitrust review being a key highlight.
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